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MindManager and Risk Analysis
Using MindManager for Identification of Uncertainties
Because many problems with identification of uncertainties lie in certain limitations of our mental processes, we should use tools that will facilitate our ability to process information and make proper assessments. Let’s see how MindManager can help us identify uncertainties.
One or many subject experts perform the process of identifying uncertainties. Sometimes this is done using brainstorming meetings. The first step is to define the questions these experts will answer. In most cases, these questions ask what could happen and what actions must occur in specific circumstances?
Many uncertainties can be defined as different events, which can affect processes. For example, a change of requirements can affect the project. This event can affect the project schedule in different ways. For example, it can increase duration, increase cost, or cause a cancellation of a project. Events can have different probability and chance of occurrence. MindManager can be easily used to capture information about each event with its properties: probability and impact. Events can be grouped together. For example, a group of events related to a change in requirements can include an event related to different stages for a project. MindManager is an ideal tool to capture such a hierarchy.
Sometimes uncertainties can be defined as ranges of certain parameters. For example, when we calculate the cost of construction, the cost of materials can be within certain ranges. Often, it is possible to assign a statistical distribution to such uncertainties. MindManager can be used to define and visualize different estimates, such as low, base, and high,
for these ranges.
Another way to represent uncertainties is to identify different possible scenarios and alternatives. For example, this could be the different ways to achieve project goals. MindManager can easy capture possible scenarios with their properties.
If MindManager is consistently used for the identification of uncertainties, it can help to mitigate negative impact of heuristics biases. MindManager will present a full map of different uncertainties defined with the same set of properties and similar amount of details. It will help to mitigate a negative impact of representativeness heuristic. Visual presentation of uncertainties during a brainstorming meeting in MindManager format will help experts to define a more comprehensive set of uncertainties. This will help to mitigate the availability heuristic. With a visual map of related uncertainties, the expert will be able concentrate more on logical relationship between uncertainties instead of goals. It may mitigate the negative impact of selective perception. MindManager visualization will help experts to elaborate a full set of options and alternatives instead of thinking about the original estimate and, therefore, mitigate negative effect of anchoring.
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